Iran is increasing its military capabilities and drone production faster than expected

US media outlet CNN reported that Iran has already resumed drone production during a six-week ceasefire that began in early April. The media outlet reported this information on Thursday (May 21), citing two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments. The report, citing four other sources, said that according to US intelligence, Iran’s military is rebuilding its military industry and bases much faster than initially thought.
According to intelligence sources, Iran is rebuilding the production capacity of missile bases, launchers and major weapons systems destroyed in the ongoing conflict. This means that even if US President Donald Trump resumes bombing, Iran will remain a major threat to Washington’s allies in the Middle East. At the same time, the progress also raises serious questions about how much Iran’s military power has weakened in the long term. Full capability could return in 6 months
While timelines for developing different weapons components vary, a US official told CNN that intelligence estimates suggest Iran could regain full drone strike capability within the next six months. “The Iranians have exceeded all the timelines given by US intelligence agencies for the weapons to be re-engineered,” the official said. If war breaks out again, Iran could use a large number of drones to make up for its damaged missile production capacity, which could hit Israel and the Gulf states.

Are Russia and China behind the attack?
A source said that Iran was able to recover so quickly due to lower-than-expected losses and indirect support from Russia and China. According to the source, China has been supplying Iran with various missile components during the conflict, which are currently somewhat limited due to US sanctions.
In an interview with CBS last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused China of supplying Iran with “missile manufacturing components.” However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiaqun dismissed the accusation as “baseless”.

Contradictory statements from the Pentagon and CENTCOM
Meanwhile, there has been a clear disagreement within the US military over this Iranian reconstruction. Last Tuesday, at a hearing of the US House Armed Services Committee, CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper claimed that ‘Operation Epic Fury’ had severely damaged Iran’s ballistic missile and drone capabilities and destroyed 90 percent of their defense industrial base, which will take years to rebuild.
However, CNN reported that there is a clear contradiction between the CENTCOM commander’s claim and intelligence information. Intelligence assessments have shown that the damage to Iran’s defense industry caused by the US attack has only delayed their reconstruction process by months, not years.
“The U.S. military is the most powerful in the world and we have the full capability to launch strikes at any time and anywhere the president directs,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement, without comment.

Half of drones and missile launchers intact
According to recent U.S. intelligence reports, more than two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers are still intact, more than ever before. The ceasefire has allowed the Iranians to dig out launchers that were stuck underground or under rubble. In addition, about 50 percent of Iran’s drone capabilities are still fully intact. At the same time, a large part of Iran’s coastal defense cruise missiles, which are known to pose a threat to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, have not been destroyed.
Overall, U.S. intelligence reports indicate that while the war has somewhat weakened Iran’s military capabilities, it has not completely destroyed them, and Tehran is very effectively overcoming the long-term effects of the war.