Hasina government’s growth figures don’t add up.

During the Sheikh Hasina government, double-digit growth has been shown in the manufacturing sector every year. They even claimed that the contribution of the manufacturing sector to the total GDP has increased from 17.27 percent to 23.19 percent. However, this calculation of GDP growth shown by the manufacturing sector over the years does not match the preliminary results of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) Economic Census 2024.

The BBS survey says that the contribution of the industrial sector to the country’s economic units has decreased to 8.77 percent in the last 11 years, which was 11.54 percent in 2013. Apart from this, the growth of economic units in the country has also decreased in the last 11 years. Overall, the pace of employment growth was also low. Women’s leadership and employment in the management of economic units have also decreased.

This information was given at the preliminary report release ceremony of the Economic Census 2024 at the conference room of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in the capital, Agargaon yesterday. Planning and Education Advisor Dr. Wahiduddin Mahmud was the chief guest at the ceremony. The President of the Economic Task Force, Dr. KAS Murshid, was present as a special guest. The program was presided over by BBS Director General Mohammad Mizanur Rahman. The project director of the project, SM Shakil Akhtar, spoke.

According to BBS, the total production in the manufacturing sector in the country in the fiscal year 2012-13 was Tk 1,97,127 crore. In the last fiscal year, its amount increased to about Tk 1,132,735 crore. That is, in the last 11 years, the total production value of the manufacturing sector has increased by about 5.75 times. In this regard, the government has shown an average growth of more than 14 percent every year. Among these, even in the year when the GDP collapsed due to the impact of the coronavirus (in the fiscal year 2019-20), this sector showed a growth of more than 4 percent. Apart from this, double-digit growth has been shown in the manufacturing sector every year, and even in some years, it has shown a growth of 18 percent. The Hasina government also claimed that the contribution of the manufacturing sector to the total GDP has increased from 17.27 percent to 23.19 percent at that time.

The preliminary estimate of the economic census says that the number of economic units (establishments) in the manufacturing sector has increased by only 15.39 percent in the last 10 years. However, compared to the census conducted from 2001 to 2003, the number of economic units in this sector had increased by 100.42 percent in the 2013 census. That is, the growth of economic units in the country has also decreased overall.

The report shows that due to the relatively low growth in the manufacturing sector, the contribution of this sector to the economic units has come down to 8.77 percent. In 2003, the contribution of the manufacturing sector to the total economic units was 12.14 percent, which came down to 11.54 percent in 2013. Accordingly, the contribution of the manufacturing sector’s establishments (units) has decreased in two consecutive censuses. On the other hand, in the last 10 years, the number of service sector units has increased by 56.68 percent from 69 lakh 15 thousand 982 to 1 crore 8 lakh 35 thousand 896. As a result, the contribution of the service sector to the total units has increased from 88.86 percent to 91.23 percent.

According to the report, the size of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) has increased by 40 lakh crore taka in the last decade. During this time, 40 lakh 58 thousand households and businesses have been added to the country’s economic activities. Of these, 39 lakh 19 thousand have been added to the service sector, while only 1 lakh 38 thousand have been added to the production sector. Due to this, only 6.2 million people have been employed in the last 10 years.

Dr. Khandaker Golam Moazzem, Research Director of the Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said that generally, for sustainable development, there is a need to transition from agriculture to industry and then to the service sector. But Bangladesh is directly entering the service sector from agriculture, avoiding industrialization. He further said that instead of conventional industrialization, investors are building small, informal family units, which are of low quality and low income.

The report shows that as of the last fiscal year, the total number of economic units in the country stood at 11,877,364. Of these, 6,288,214 were permanent, 5,766,621 were temporary, and 501,12529 were economic households. Exactly a decade ago, there were 7,818,565 economic units. Of these, 4,514,091 were permanent, 4,82,903 were temporary, and 2,821,571 were economic households. That is, 4,058,799 economic units increased in a decade.

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