Maduro detained by Trump, what is the fate of Venezuela?

The United States has not directly intervened militarily in a Latin American country since the capture of Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega in 1989. However, Donald Trump repeated that history at the beginning of 2026.
Last Friday night, US forces arrested Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in a surprise raid on several military targets in Venezuela. Many analysts see the kidnapping of a sitting president from his capital in the dead of night as a naked display of unbridled power.
US President Trump announced the operation in a message on social media. In the 74-word post, he made it clear how reckless he can be in implementing his bizarre foreign policy. Without considering international law or the far-reaching consequences of such actions, he announced that Maduro would be brought to New York on a US ship, where he would face trial.
Historical context (Saddam and Noriega):
This incident is reminiscent of the arrest of Manuel Noriega in Panama in 1989. Both Maduro and Noriega were accused of disputed elections and drug trafficking. However, in Noriega’s case, after a brief war, he took refuge in the Vatican embassy and later surrendered. On the other hand, Maduro’s fate is comparable to the arrest of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in 2003. Interestingly, both Noriega and Saddam were once close allies of Washington, just as Venezuelan oil politics were once in favor of the United States.
Allegations against Maduro and Trump’s ‘Monroe Doctrine’
The United States claims that Maduro came to power illegally and is personally involved in drug trafficking. In response to these allegations, the United States has deployed a fleet and nuclear submarines to the Caribbean Sea for the past few months. Trump’s move is not only aimed at curbing crime, but also at reviving the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine, which saw the Western Hemisphere as the United States’ sole “sphere of influence.” Trump’s main goal is to reduce China’s influence in the region and regain control of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
Uncertain future and regional influence:
The future of Venezuela now faces extreme uncertainty after Maduro’s arrest. US Attorney General Pam Bondi said that Maduro has been charged with narco-terrorism and illegal weapons possession. However, many see the trial as politically motivated, as the White House has long been desperate to overthrow Venezuela’s leftist government.
The question now is, will peace return to Venezuela after Maduro’s fall or will civil war break out? Even if opposition leaders such as María Corina Machado or Edmundo Gonzalez come to power, the country’s military may still be loyal to Maduro. While this is a major victory for Trump, the chaos it could cause in Venezuela could put the stability of the entire region at risk.